Grades: ELITE 70%+ · STRONG 65-70% · LEAN 58-65% · SLIM 52-58% · PASS under 52% (model probability of the graded side). NRFI Score: the model's probability for the graded side on a 0-100 scale (50 = coin flip). Sim Score: how often NRFI hit across 10,000 Monte Carlo sims of the matchup, same scale. Model: each half-inning blends the pitcher's scoreless-first rate (65%, shrunk toward the league half-inning rate) with the batting team's scoreless-first rate at this venue (35%), every input computed from linescores; the two halves combine for the game price. Team offense and pitching halves are tracked separately: a team that scored in the first last game has a 0 offensive streak even if its pitching half was clean. Pitcher streaks and L10 windows include playoff starts. Trend windows (Last 10 / 5, home and away filters) run over each starter's most recent starts, crossing seasons and including playoff starts; the opponent vs-hand windows cover that team's most recent games against starters of the same hand.